Oscar, Oscar - who will win?

The Oscars are pretty much my Super Bowl. With that in mind, here are my picks for the winners tonight.

Best Picture
What will win: Brokeback Mountain
What I want to win: Capote
What should have been nominated: The Squid and the Whale

Best Director
Who will win: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Who I want to win: Ang Lee, Brokeback Mountain
Who should have been nominated: Noah Baumbach, The Squid and the Whale

Best Actor
Who will win: Philip Seymour Hoffman, Capote
Who I want to win: David Strathairn, Good Night, and Good Luck.
Who should have been nominated: Jeff Daniels, The Squid and the Whale

Best Actress
Who will win: Felicity Huffman, TransAmerica
Who I want to win: (I haven't seen any of these movies, so I can't pick.)
Who should have been nominated: Laura Linney, The Squid and the Whale

Best Supporting Actor
Who will win: George Clooney, Syriana
Who I want to win: George Clooney, Syriana
Who should have been nominated: Owen Kline, The Squid and the Whale

Best Supporting Actress
Who will win: Rachel Weisz, The Constant Gardener
Who I want to win: Amy Adams, Junebug
Who should have been nominated: (I'm pretty content with the nominations in this category.)

Best Original Screenplay
What will win: Crash
What I want to win: The Squid and the Whale
What should have been nominated: The 40-Year-Old Virgin

Best Adapted Screenplay
What will win: Brokeback Mountain
What I want to win: Capote
What should have been nominated: Syriana (It was nominated for best original screenplay, but it was based on a book.)

Also, why are there only three songs nominated for best original song? What about "He Was a Friend of Mine" and "A Love That Will Never Grow Old" from Brokeback Mountain? How did those slip through the cracks?